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The problem is that legalisation has not happened as quickly as expected, while taxes and competition have increased. “Online gaming has been affected by the broader re-rating of growth-oriented internet and software stocks,” says Chad Beynon, managing director and head of US research at Macquarie Capital. “But there has also been a genuine deterioration in expectations for parts of the sector.”
Beynon says sports betting companies have suffered particularly badly because the market is questioning both future earnings and the size of the eventual opportunity. More iGaming-focused companies such as Rush Street Interactive and Super Group have generally performed better operationally, helped by stronger earnings growth and profitability.
The lesson is simple: gambling still attracts capital when the money is visible. It is less attractive when the payoff lies far in the distance.
About Three Trojan Horses
The name didn’t sit well with Naked City’s property owners, including Bob Stupak, who, in 1979, opened the Vegas World casino resort on land he owned in the neighborhood.
In 1996, Stupak replaced Vegas World with the Stratosphere—whose 1,149-foot observation tower remains the largest structure west of the Mississippi—remodeling Vegas World’s towers for the new purpose.
Stupak’s friends in city government agreed to rebrand the neighborhood as Meadows Village in the late ’80s. They also told and retold the cover story of the sunbathing showgirls, insisting that the Naked City nickname had nothing to do with crime.
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As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.
