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If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

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However, the latest filing does not create such a system right away. Its OIRA entry describes the action as a preliminary measure and says it is not economically significant under the relevant review criteria. No legal deadline has been listed for review either. 

It could, therefore, take quite a bit longer than the timing of the initial filing indicates. The CFTC would have to publish its action and solicit public comment after White House review before writing a formal proposed rule. Any final rule would have to undergo another review and comment period before it could take effect. 

The distinction matters for crypto businesses. The filing shows regulatory work is moving forward, but exchanges and other market participants cannot yet consider it a set of rules they must adhere to. 

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But while the ARGN intends to enhance collaboration between stakeholders across the continent, Akolade asserts the aim is to promote “common principles rather than identical regulations”.

Akolade explains: “Every African country has its own legal framework, culture, and level of market development, so a single model might not work everywhere.

“What we do believe is that basic principles should apply across all markets. These include protecting minors, providing effective self-exclusion options, promoting responsible advertising and ensuring that people affected by gambling harm can access support.