Bison Valley

What is Bison Valley?

While sports event contracts are currently the tentpole category for the prediction market industry, data indicate bettors and traders are embracing other categories.

Fullstory points out that while 62% of consumers have dabbled in sports event contracts, 42% traded economic or financial derivatives on a prediction market while a comparable percentage transacted in an election or political event contract. More than a quarter traded at least one entertainment or pop culture derivative.

That widening breadth is vital for the industry at a time when some analysts estimate volume could jump to $10 trillion by 2035 – a projection that is largely rooted in other categories surpassing sports for the top spot.  

What is Bison Valley?

But for Klebanow, the lesson Japan should take from Macau and Singapore extends beyond the importance of non-gaming attractions. It is also about how regulation should work. Policymakers, he argues, should establish basic legal and commercial guardrails, while giving operators sufficient “latitude” to “propose and develop projects that best serve both the residential and tourism markets”.

He points to Macau’s Cotai Strip and Singapore’s Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa as examples of how regulatory discipline can coexist with considerable freedom for developers to innovate. “At its core, Japan’s policies need to be pragmatic and allow for developments to succeed – not constrain them to the point that they risk failure.”

When asked which operator will be willing to take the risk and ultimately win Japan’s next “licence lottery”, Klebanow contends that it depends on how restrictive – or attainable – the regulations and requirements imposed by the government will be.

How to play Bison Valley

Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.

His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.